For those that missed it, here are some of the written thoughts we prepared in advance of this morning’s CNBC appearance, some of which we shared during the interview. (Readers may may need a CNBC.com password to watch the replay, available on this link.)
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I would put my current thoughts into three primary buckets. These include The High Flyers, The Washed Outs and The Have Beens.
The High Flyers. In an era of slow economic growth, stick to companies that are not dependent on the economic cycle, or at least less so. Companies that strive on innovation are the key. In this category, you can buy a number of high flyers at a discount from their 52 week highs, including GOOG, AAPL, and even ISRG. (I would point out that being a high flyer isn’t a bad thing; MSFT, DELL and CSCO were all high flyers at one point in time, and their reigns as stock market kings often lasted a decade or more.)
The Washed Outs. This gang includes great American brand names, particularly in the consumer discretionary sector. (Yes, the washed outs!) People may be avoiding homes right now, but that doesn’t mean they won’t find other things to buy over time or that the economy won’t eventually turn. Nordstrom’s and Harley Davidson fit the bill. I think the downside in these names is washed out and while they don’t have the sex appeal of The High Flyers, they represent great long term values and a more easily defined market opportunity.
The Have Beens. This last group answers your question as to what I might be avoiding right now. And by Have Beens, I mean companies whose stock prices Have Been parabolic. Everything commodity oriented raises my eyebrows a bit, trading well above 50/200 dma, with just starry eyed fundamentals. While I wouldn’t short the sector, I think investors should take a close look, as we did, to how correlated the prices of stocks in their portfolios have been to the price of oil. Chances are very likely that people are overexposed without even knowing it, just as they were in the hindsight of the tech wreck and housing bust. Bubbles, of course, have a mind of there own, but when they pop, the pain can be severe. So, at this point, understanding is the first step to adequate preparation.
Please keep in mind that the stock ideas shared on today’s interview are as of a specific point in time and are subject to change without prior notification by Broadleaf Partners, LLC. Broadleaf Partners, LLC, its clients and/or its employees may hold positions in the securities it recommends.
