Category Archives: Economic Updates
Driving with the Doors Off, Part II
About ten months ago, I wrote about my new bulldozer-yellow Jeep Wrangler, comparing the sensation of Driving with the Doors Off to investing in the New Normal, or as I like to call it, a “slow growth for as far as the eyes can see” environment. While the pavement had always been a mere twelve [...]
Like Baseball in the Snow
The last three months have been rewarding for stocks, but like baseball in the snow, something hasn’t quite felt right. We’ve enjoyed some gains, but keeping pace with the rapidly rising indices has proven challenging. Historically, our long term results have almost entirely been a function of strong individual stock picks, but in recent months it has been [...]
Flying High
The media has made a spectacle out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new all-time highs. Once again, what may prove newsworthy is not only misleading but also, quite frankly, false. Allow us to explain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 indices do not include the compounding effect of dividends paid [...]
An Apple’s First Worm
Writing about Apple is painful. Not because I have lost money in recent months or have no insight to provide, but because the media will likely report on it ad nausea for the next few days. It is perhaps human nature that the news which is most readily produced is also the news that is [...]
Nothing Changed
Many events have transpired since our mid-September update, but not much has really changed. Economic growth should remain slow for as far as the eyes can see, as each region of the world struggles with its own version of the New Normal. Capitalistic animal spirits have gone the way of the modern American male and [...]
All In
Dissatisfied with progress on the jobs front, the Fed went “all in” yesterday in its much anticipated, most recent policy announcement. Unlike QE1, QE2 and Operation Twist, the latest addition to the monetary smorgasbord is open-ended, meaning that it has no pre-established termination date. (View a printable version of this Economic Update: All In). Policy, we [...]
Driving with the Doors Off
Two months ago I bought a bulldozer-yellow Jeep Wrangler, replacing my eight year old black Audi A6. While the A6 had been a wonderful car, I was ready for something new and a Jeep fit the bill. The Jeep is large enough that I can drive my family around and while the gas mileage isn’t [...]
Our Take on Today’s Payroll Numbers
This morning’s payroll numbers were disappointing, a fact that is being reflected in the performance of today’s stock market, now down nearly 2%. Total non-farm payrolls were expected to show a gain of 150K, but increased only 69K, while the total unemployment rate edged up to 8.2% from 8.1% previously. While still in positive territory, [...]
Plain Vanilla
Last Thursday evening, JP Morgan announced it lost at least $2 billion on trades related to “egregious” errors on its “synthetic” investments. The complex products that were meant to protect the bank instead blew up in their face. Perhaps if JP Morgan stuck to the business of making better loans, it wouldn’t be so enamored [...]
Quirky Tales and Waves of Change
Four years ago oil prices approached $150 per barrel. Analysts at Goldman Sachs got all in a lather, with one making the prediction that it would soon hit $200. Peak oil theory became a hot topic in the American press and our dependence on foreign oil both a national security interest and a polarizing issue [...]
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Driving with the Doors Off, Part II
About ten months ago, I wrote about my new bulldozer-yellow Jeep Wrangler, comparing the sensation o…
Bob Feller Act of Valor Award
In the spirit of Memorial Day, Broadleaf Partners would like to spread the news about the inaugural…