A stronger durable goods order number this morning and an uptick in consumer confidence suggest that second quarter GDP may be as high as 2-2.5%, a considerable distance from recessionary levels.
While the tax rebates have likely helped this quarter, it would still be an excellent showing, particularly considering all the negative news of late. Keep in mind that Q4/Q1 GDP was likely around .6-.9%, so this number would represent a clear improvement in trend.
The chairman of YRC Worldwide, the old Yellow Roadway trucking company, was also just on CNBC and said that shipment sizes, a leading indicator of economic activity, were starting to go up.
It’s nice to catch a glimpse of sunshine every now and then. Every little bit helps.
I hope it spreads like wildfire.
